Inventory Stockout Analysis & Months of Inventory Metric
Overview
As of 2026-02-18, Doodla Farms is experiencing significant revenue loss due to inventory stockouts across multiple SKUs. Sales dropped to $3,800 on 2026-02-17 and were trending lower the following morning (~$400 by mid-morning). The root cause is Doodla's inability to keep pace with packing and shipping, compounded by Amazon's multi-week receiving delays and shipper warehousing lag.
This article documents the new Months of Inventory metric introduced to improve supply forecasting, the current stockout status by SKU, and the reorder thresholds established in the [1] engagement.
New Metric: Months of Inventory (Column W)
Problem with the Prior Approach
The previous formula used Column M (FBA on-hand + inbound to FBA + AWD stock) as the inventory denominator. This understated total available supply by excluding shipments that are scheduled or in the broader pipeline.
New Formula
$$\text{Months of Inventory} = \frac{\text{Column O (Total Pipeline Inventory)}}{\text{Column V (Monthly Velocity)}}$$
- Column O = All stock in the pipeline: FBA on-hand + inbound to FBA + AWD + scheduled shipments (including those Amazon has marked "shipped" but which are awaiting pickup)
- Column V = Units sold in the last 30 days (consumer orders)
Rationale
Using Column O gives a complete picture of supply regardless of where inventory sits in the fulfillment chain. This prevents false alarms on SKUs with large inbound shipments and catches true gaps where nothing is planned.
Reorder Threshold
Any SKU showing less than 3 months of inventory in Column W should trigger an immediate reorder. Gilbert monitors this daily and notifies Karly when a SKU crosses below the threshold.
Action (Gilbert): Update Column W formula across all SKUs to use
O ÷ V. Add an "Awaiting Pickup" status distinction for shipments where labels/BOL exist but physical pickup has not occurred.
Stockout Status by SKU (as of 2026-02-18)
Critical — 0 Months Supply
| SKU | Months of Inventory | Pipeline Status |
|---|---|---|
| 1lb Black Beans | 0 | 540 units inbound; expected this week or next |
| 5lb Buckwheat | 0 | No shipment planned |
5lb Buckwheat is the most urgent gap: zero units on-hand, zero inbound, and no order placed. Velocity is also uncertain because the SKU has historically been understocked, meaning true demand may be higher than recorded.
Action (Karly): Place order for 5lb Buckwheat immediately.
Warning — ~1 Month Supply
| SKU | Months of Inventory | Pipeline Status |
|---|---|---|
| 1lb Navy Beans | ~1 month | No inbound noted |
| 5lb Rye Flour | ~1 month | No inbound noted |
Both SKUs are below the 3-month reorder threshold and require new orders.
Action (Karly): Place orders for 1lb Navy Beans and 5lb Rye Flour.
Recovering — Inbound but Delayed
| SKU | Months of Inventory | Pipeline Status |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5lb Yellow Cornmeal | Low | 1,728 units inbound; estimated 2–3 weeks to FBA receipt |
Cornmeal is a top-2 revenue SKU (see Sales Concentration below). The inbound shipment is marked "shipped" in Amazon's system but is awaiting pickup. A gap in availability is likely before units arrive.
Adequate Supply (≥3 Months)
- 1.5lb Buckwheat (~21 months — but velocity may be suppressed due to prior stockouts)
- 5lb Black Beans (sufficient)
- Most other SKUs not flagged in this review
Sales Concentration (80/20 Analysis)
Approximately 80% of Doodla's Amazon revenue comes from a small number of SKUs:
| Rank | SKU | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yellow Popcorn | Dominant SKU; AI analysis confirms it drives the account |
| 2 | 1.5lb Yellow Cornmeal | Sleeper hit; growing fast |
| 3 | White Popcorn | Consistent performer |
| 4 | Old World Brand | New brand, now outranking Be Still, Franklin's, and Preferred after ~6 months |
| 5 | 5lb Black Beans | Stable |
Old World Brand is a notable success: launched from scratch, it has reached top-4 status organically and is outranking established competitors. Continued inventory support is critical to sustaining this momentum.
Action (Karly): Schedule next Doodla build with Justin; prioritize Old World Brand shipment after current build completes (2026-02-27 pickup scheduled).
Impact of Stockouts on Organic Rank
Stockouts cause compounding damage beyond immediate lost sales:
- Immediate revenue loss — units cannot be purchased while out of stock
- Organic rank decay — Amazon's algorithm depresses ranking for listings with availability gaps
- Recovery cost — regaining lost rank requires sustained sales velocity and often increased ad spend; it does not recover automatically when stock returns
This makes stockout prevention significantly more valuable than the face-value of lost daily sales. The $3,800/day revenue impact figure understates total cost when rank recovery time is factored in.
Operational Context
Doodla's fulfillment bottleneck is internal: product (e.g., beans) is physically available in bulk but the client is not keeping pace with bagging, labeling, and shipping. Key constraints noted:
- Client schedules builds approximately 2 weeks out; Karly cannot schedule further in advance due to SKU mix uncertainty
- Amazon receiving times are running 2+ weeks after pickup
- Some shippers are warehousing inventory rather than delivering promptly
- AWD (Amazon Warehousing & Distribution) is no longer being used; all pipeline is direct-to-FBA
The combination of these delays means the effective lead time from "place order" to "available for sale" can exceed 4–6 weeks, making the 3-month reorder threshold a minimum, not a buffer.
Related
- [2]
- [3]