wiki/knowledge/ecommerce-strategy/doudlah-farms-inventory-months-metric.md Layer 2 article 772 words Updated: 2026-02-18
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Months of Inventory Metric — Doudlah Farms

Overview

During the 2026-02-18 weekly call, the team identified a critical gap in Doodla's inventory forecasting: the existing metric (Column W) was dividing monthly velocity by Column M (FBA + AWD stock only), which excluded inventory already in the shipping pipeline. This produced an overly optimistic supply picture and contributed to a series of stockouts costing approximately $3,800/day in lost revenue.

A corrected "Months of Inventory" formula was defined and adopted as the new standard reorder trigger.

The Formula

Months of Inventory = Total Pipeline Inventory (Column O) ÷ Monthly Velocity (Column V)
Column Description
O Total Pipeline Inventory — all stock in FBA, inbound to FBA, AWD, inbound to AWD, and shipments with BOLs created (even if not yet picked up)
V Monthly Velocity — consumer orders (units sold) over the trailing 30 days
W Months of Inventory — the computed output; update this column to use O÷V

Why Column O, Not Column M

Column M captures only stock that is physically present or nearly received. Column O captures everything in the pipeline, including:

Using O gives a complete supply picture and prevents false confidence when shipments are labeled but not yet physically in transit. Note: Amazon marks a shipment as "Shipped" as soon as labels/BOL are created, even if the scheduled pickup date is days away. The team flagged adding an internal "Awaiting Pickup" status to the shipping queue to distinguish these cases.

Reorder Trigger

Reorder any SKU where Column W (Months of Inventory) falls below 3 months.

Gilbert monitors the sheet and notifies Karly when any SKU crosses this threshold. Karly is responsible for placing the replenishment order.

Stockout Snapshot (as of 2026-02-18)

SKU Months of Inventory Notes
1 lb Black Beans 0 540 units inbound; expected this week or next
5 lb Buckwheat 0 No shipment planned — order needed immediately
1 lb Navy Beans ~1 Order needed
5 lb Rye Flour ~1 Order needed
1.5 lb Yellow Cornmeal Low 1,728 units inbound; delivery 2–3 weeks out

The 5 lb Buckwheat case is notable: because the SKU has historically never been adequately stocked, its velocity figure is artificially suppressed — actual demand is likely higher than the trailing 30-day number suggests.

Business Impact

Revenue

Sales dropped to $3,800 on 2026-02-17 and were trending lower on the call date. The primary driver was stockouts on top-selling SKUs (Popcorn, Black Beans, Yellow Cornmeal), which together represent the majority of revenue under the 80/20 rule.

Organic Search Rank

Stockouts on Amazon cause immediate and lasting damage to organic rankings. Recovering position after a stockout requires significant time and ad spend. This makes proactive inventory management a search-performance issue, not just an operations issue.

Top SKUs to Protect

Rank SKU
1 Yellow Popcorn
2 Yellow Cornmeal
3 White Popcorn
4 Old World Brand (new; outranking Be Still, Franklin's, Preferred)
5 5 lb Black Beans

These SKUs should be treated as the highest-priority reorder targets. The Old World brand in particular has grown from zero to a top-4 position in roughly six months and should not be allowed to stock out.

Operational Context

Doodla's root constraint is packing and shipping throughput, not raw material supply. Beans and grain are often physically on-site but unbagged. The team's role is to maintain enough lead time in the pipeline (target: 3+ months) to absorb Doodla's packing delays, shipper hold times, and Amazon's 1–2 week receiving lag.

A $35,000 bulk Black Bean order was scheduled to ship March 11, providing near-term relief on that SKU.

Action Items (from this meeting)

Sources

  1. Index
  2. Amazon Organic Rank And Inventory