Doudlah Farms CPA Target A/B Test
Overview
During the 2026-02-25 weekly ops call, the team identified that Dudla Farms' Google Ads PMAX campaigns were flagged as "limited by target" — meaning the CPA target was set below the actual observed CPA, causing Google's bidding algorithm to throttle spend and suppress conversions.
The team agreed to run a one-week A/B test raising the CPA target to Google's recommended value to determine whether a higher ceiling would unlock more conversion volume.
The Problem
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current CPA target | $12.98 |
| Actual (observed) CPA | ~$14.80 |
| Google-recommended target | $16.23 |
| Campaign status | Limited by target |
When a campaign's CPA target is lower than the actual cost per conversion, Google's Smart Bidding algorithm cannot find enough qualifying auctions to spend the available budget. The result is suppressed impressions and fewer conversions — even when budget headroom exists. In this case, the account had ~$900 in unspent budget over 30 days despite a $90/day budget allocation.
The Test
Hypothesis: Raising the CPA target to Google's recommended $16.23 will allow the algorithm to enter more auctions, increasing conversion volume without a proportional increase in cost-per-conversion.
Test parameters:
- Duration: 1 week
- Change: CPA target raised from $12.98 → $16.23 (Google's recommendation)
- Campaign: Dudla Farms PMAX (popcorn)
- Owner: Gilbert (to monitor and report)
Success criteria:
- Conversions increase week-over-week
- Cost-per-conversion does not exceed $16.23 in practice
- Overall spend efficiency holds
Failure criteria:
- Spend increases but conversions do not follow
- Actual CPA climbs above the new target without conversion gains
Black Beans — Decision to Hold
A separate PMAX campaign for Black Beans was also flagged as limited by target. Google recommended raising its CPA target from $16.98 → $21.00.
The team decided not to apply this recommendation. Rationale:
"$21 — that's the price of the product, right? Your ad cost would be equal to the revenue. Just break even." — Mark Hope
At a $21 CPA, ad spend alone would consume the full product revenue, leaving no margin to cover cost of goods, fulfillment, or shipping. The Black Beans target remains at $16.98.
Key Decisions
- ✅ Raise Dudla Farms (popcorn) CPA target from $12.98 → $16.23 for one week
- ✅ Monitor results; revert if cost rises without conversion gains
- ❌ Do not raise Black Beans CPA target to $21 — unprofitable ceiling
Action Items
- [ ] Gilbert — Apply $16.23 CPA target to the Dudla Farms PMAX popcorn campaign and monitor for one week
- [ ] Gilbert — Report results at next weekly call; revert to $12.98 if performance does not improve
Broader Context
This test sits within a larger strategic shift for Dudla Farms Google Ads: the team is transitioning from PMAX campaigns (used for initial data gathering) to dedicated Search campaigns for popcorn, black beans, and cornmeal. See [1] for the rationale and rollout plan.
The "limited by target" issue is a common PMAX pitfall: CPA targets set during early campaign setup often become stale as actual performance data accumulates. Regular target reviews — ideally monthly — can prevent budget suppression.
Related
- [2]
- [1]
- [3]