--- title: Quarra — Inventory & FBA Optimization type: article created: '2026-03-04' updated: '2026-04-05' source_docs: - raw/2026-03-04-weekly-call-inventory-performance-marketing-127153266.md tags: - amazon-fba - inventory - ai-tooling - stockouts - roas layer: 2 client_source: null industry_context: null transferable: true --- # Quarra — Inventory & FBA Optimization ## Overview Inventory stockouts are the primary performance bottleneck for this account. When top-selling SKUs go out of stock, ROAS suffers directly and immediately — there is no amount of ad optimization that compensates for zero available units. This article documents the stockout situation observed in early March 2026, the root causes, and the AI-driven shipment model being developed to prevent recurrence. See also: [[wiki/clients/quarra/_index]] | [[wiki/knowledge/performance-marketing/google-ads-new-campaign-setup.md]] --- ## The Problem: Stockouts Suppressing ROAS As of the March 4, 2026 weekly call, ROAS was **3.35** (up slightly from 3.3 the prior week), but performance remained below trend. The cause was confirmed as inventory, not ad quality. ### Active Stockouts at Time of Review | SKU | Units in Stock | 30-Day Sales Velocity | Units Inbound | |---|---|---|---| | Old World White Popcorn | 0 | 425 units/mo | 2,400 (pending pickup) | | Kidney Beans (5 lb) | 0 | ~72 units/mo | 288 (in transit) | | Various 25 lb SKUs | 0 | Low velocity | — | The Old World White Popcorn stockout is particularly damaging given its sales velocity. With 425 units/month in normal conditions, every day out of stock represents meaningful lost revenue and suppressed organic rank. ### Compounding Factor: Shipment Pickup Delays Inbound shipments scheduled for **March 9** were delayed due to unresolved pickup logistics on Carly's end. Units were in the system but not yet moving. This is a process gap — shipments need to be confirmed in motion, not just scheduled. --- ## Positive Signals (Despite Stockouts) Even with inventory constraints, several metrics were trending in the right direction: - **ROAS:** 3.35, up from 3.3 week-over-week - **TACOS:** Decreasing → improving profit margins - **Organic units:** Growing - **Subscribe & Save sales:** Growing The interpretation: the underlying account health is improving. Resolving inventory issues should produce a step-change improvement in ROAS, not just incremental gains. --- ## Solution: AI-Driven Inventory Shipment Model Gilbert is building an AI tool to automate optimal shipment quantity calculations and prevent future stockouts. The model uses three inputs: 1. **30-day sales velocity** — units ordered in the trailing 30 days per SKU 2. **Lead time** — typically 2–3 weeks from order to FBA receipt 3. **Current FBA stock** — existing units at fulfillment centers The model outputs a recommended shipment quantity that accounts for the time gap between ordering and availability, ensuring buffer stock is maintained. **Demo planned for the following week's call.** ### Why This Matters Manual inventory management at scale is error-prone. The current process relies on someone noticing a stockout or low-stock condition and reacting. The AI model shifts this to proactive, data-driven reorder triggers — the same logic as a reorder point system, but automated and continuously recalibrated against actual velocity. --- ## Process Recommendations - **Never let a top-10 SKU by velocity reach zero FBA stock.** Set a minimum buffer of at least 2× weekly velocity. - **Confirm shipments are physically moving**, not just scheduled. "Pickup pending" is not the same as "in transit." - **Escalate pickup delays immediately.** A one-week delay on a 425-unit/month SKU costs roughly 100 units of sales. - **Track inbound units separately from available units** in reporting — ROAS benchmarks should note when top SKUs are stocked out, to avoid misreading ad performance. --- ## Related - [[wiki/knowledge/performance-marketing/google-ads-new-campaign-setup.md]] — Google Ads overhaul for Quarrowstone from the same call - [[wiki/knowledge/ai-tooling/claude-code-google-ads-api.md]] — Claude Code demo diagnosing and fixing the Quarrowstone ad account - [[wiki/clients/quarra/_index]]