In March 2026, Doudlah Farms shifted its Amazon inventory policy from maintaining a 3-month supply buffer to a 4–5 month supply buffer across products. The change was driven by a near-stockout of Old World Popcorn that revealed the previous buffer was insufficient to absorb unexpected velocity spikes. The team accepted higher FBA storage fees as a deliberate trade-off against the greater cost of lost sales and ranking damage from going out of stock.
This decision was discussed and confirmed during the [1].
Old World Popcorn (white and yellow varieties) approached stockout in mid-March 2026 despite the team believing they had a 2–3 month supply on hand. At the time of the call:
At prevailing sales velocity, both SKUs were functionally sold out.
Sales velocity exceeded projections. The product "just took off" faster than anticipated — a good problem, but one that exposed the fragility of a lean 3-month buffer when demand accelerates. A concurrent Estes shipping failure (carrier not picking up a shipment for over a week) compounded the problem by delaying replenishment inventory from reaching FBA warehouses.
Estes Express failed to pick up a scheduled shipment for approximately one week, causing meaningful inventory delays. This is a recurring issue. Asymmetric (Gilbert) was tasked with investigating how to file a formal complaint with Amazon. Future shipments will actively avoid Estes when alternative carriers are available at comparable cost.
| Previous Buffer | New Buffer |
|---|---|
| 3 months | 4–5 months (product-dependent) |
"We'd rather pay a little bit in fees than run out — it'd be more of a loss than paying a little bit more in fees."
— Karly Oykhman, March 2026 call
The cost calculus is straightforward:
For popcorn products specifically, the VAPG grant reimburses 100% of Amazon fees — including storage — making the cost of carrying additional inventory effectively zero on those SKUs during the grant period.
The new buffer policy will need to be applied to the forthcoming [3] from day one. Key unknowns at launch:
Shelf life is a meaningful constraint that distinguishes Pop Popcorn from unpopped kernel SKUs. The 4–5 month buffer target may need to be moderated for this product to avoid expiration risk, and production run cadence (estimated ~every 3 months via TS Foods) must align with sell-through projections.
| Decision | Detail |
|---|---|
| Increase inventory buffer | 3 months → 4–5 months |
| Accept higher storage fees | Deliberate trade-off vs. stockout risk |
| Avoid Estes for future shipments | Carrier reliability issues; Asymmetric to select alternatives manually |
| File complaint re: Estes | Gilbert (Asymmetric) investigating Amazon complaint process |