As of October 2025, Doudlah Farms faces an immediate inventory risk on Old World popcorn driven by stronger-than-expected Amazon sales. Simultaneously, the team identified a gap in forward planning: no SKU-level sales forecast exists across channels to guide 2025 crop holdback decisions. This article documents the stockout situation, the reorder process, and the forecasting framework needed to prevent recurrence.
Related meeting: [1]
A prior issue with zipper blow-outs (cold-seal rather than heat-seal) was noted on U-Line bags. Returns on Old World are currently low, suggesting the issue may be manageable short-term, but improving bag quality remains a priority. Gilbert was tasked with checking return data specifically for Old World.
The reorder chain involves multiple parties:
"Because I know it will, if we actually do only have four months of inventory for Old World, I mean, even if we place an order with Justin, it would take at least, you know, I would think a month or two to fulfill that." — Karly Oykhman
Mark Doudlah requested a comprehensive sales forecast to determine crop holdbacks — how much of each variety to retain from the 2025 harvest for product sales versus other uses. Without this, the farm risks either over-selling into stockouts or under-planting for demand.
The forecast must cover every SKU across all sales channels:
| Channel | Notes |
|---|---|
| Amazon | Primary volume driver; record $115k in October 2025 |
| B2B Website | Launching imminently; volume unknown |
| Walmart | Verification pending; volume speculative |
| Direct Website | Existing channel |
The output should include:
- Units per SKU per channel (annual projection)
- Total pounds of product per SKU (to translate sales into crop planning units)
Mark Hope is the designated person to build this forecast. Karly will reach out to initiate.
"I need Mark Hope to go through all of our electronic sales channels… and tell us holdbacks for the 2025 crop. So in other words, I need a projection for the year of sales of each one of those entities… every SKU… and then if I could get a total pounds of product, that would be really helpful." — Mark Doudlah
Coupons proved effective at clearing excess inventory on slow-moving SKUs (wheat and others showed months-of-supply dropping sharply after coupon activation). However, coupons should be monitored against inventory levels and removed before stock falls below a safe threshold. Old World's coupon was caught in time, but the near-miss highlights the need for tighter inventory triggers.
The current inventory spreadsheet was originally created by Mark Doudlah and does not automatically incorporate inbound FBA shipments. Gilbert noted this as a gap to address — the report should be updated to include in-transit and received-but-not-yet-counted inventory for accurate months-of-supply calculations.
Inventory is shared across Amazon, B2B, Walmart, and the direct website. A surge in one channel (as seen with Amazon in October) can rapidly deplete stock that was implicitly reserved for others. The 2025 forecast exercise is intended to make these tradeoffs explicit before crop planning decisions are locked in.