Doudlah Farms — Amazon Inventory Buffer Strategy

Overview

In March 2026, Doudlah Farms shifted its Amazon inventory policy from maintaining a 3-month supply buffer to a 4–5 month supply buffer across products. The change was driven by a near-stockout of Old World Popcorn that revealed the previous buffer was insufficient to absorb unexpected velocity spikes. The team accepted higher FBA storage fees as a deliberate trade-off against the greater cost of lost sales and ranking damage from going out of stock.

This decision was discussed and confirmed during the ^[1].

The Stockout Event: Old World Popcorn

What Happened

Old World Popcorn (white and yellow varieties) approached stockout in mid-March 2026 despite the team believing they had a 2–3 month supply on hand. At the time of the call:

• White variety: ~100 units remaining
• Yellow variety: ~174 units remaining, also declining rapidly

At prevailing sales velocity, both SKUs were functionally sold out.

Root Cause

Sales velocity exceeded projections. The product "just took off" faster than anticipated — a good problem, but one that exposed the fragility of a lean 3-month buffer when demand accelerates. A concurrent Estes shipping failure (carrier not picking up a shipment for over a week) compounded the problem by delaying replenishment inventory from reaching FBA warehouses.

Contributing Factor: Estes Shipping Failure

Estes Express failed to pick up a scheduled shipment for approximately one week, causing meaningful inventory delays. This is a recurring issue. Asymmetric (Gilbert) was tasked with investigating how to file a formal complaint with Amazon. Future shipments will actively avoid Estes when alternative carriers are available at comparable cost.

The New Buffer Policy

Rationale

"We'd rather pay a little bit in fees than run out — it'd be more of a loss than paying a little bit more in fees."
— Karly Oykhman, March 2026 call

The cost calculus is straightforward:

• Cost of stockout: Lost sales revenue, suppressed Amazon search ranking, potential loss of Buy Box, customer attrition
• Cost of extra inventory: Incremental FBA storage fees (partially offset by the ^[2] reimbursing storage fees on popcorn SKUs)

For popcorn products specifically, the VAPG grant reimburses 100% of Amazon fees — including storage — making the cost of carrying additional inventory effectively zero on those SKUs during the grant period.

Implementation

• Jason Doudlah is responsible for sending replenishment order requests to Asymmetric
• Asymmetric schedules FBA shipments and will manually select carriers, avoiding Estes
• The increased buffer is being built up incrementally through additional shipments

Implications for Pop Popcorn Launch

The new buffer policy will need to be applied to the forthcoming ^[3] from day one. Key unknowns at launch:

• Sales velocity (Asymmetric/Mark to research comparable popcorn SKU velocity on Amazon)
• Appropriate case pack size and box dimensions (product is unusually light)
• Initial send-in quantity, given 6-month shelf life constraint on popped popcorn

Shelf life is a meaningful constraint that distinguishes Pop Popcorn from unpopped kernel SKUs. The 4–5 month buffer target may need to be moderated for this product to avoid expiration risk, and production run cadence (estimated ~every 3 months via TS Foods) must align with sell-through projections.

Key Decisions

Action Items (from March 16 call)

• [ ] Jason Doudlah — Send next DFO Amazon inventory order list to Karly; flag to avoid Estes
• [ ] Karly Oykhman — Avoid Estes when scheduling future FBA shipments; select alternative carriers
• [ ] Gilbert (Asymmetric) — Investigate filing a formal complaint with Amazon regarding Estes pickup failure
• [ ] Karly/Mark (Asymmetric) — Research Pop Popcorn sales velocity to inform initial send-in quantity and case pack decisions

Related

• ^[4]
• ^[5]
• ^[6]