Doudlah Farms Inventory Forecasting & Planning

Overview

As of October 2025, Doudlah Farms faces an immediate inventory risk on Old World popcorn driven by stronger-than-expected Amazon sales. Simultaneously, the team identified a gap in forward planning: no SKU-level sales forecast exists across channels to guide 2025 crop holdback decisions. This article documents the stockout situation, the reorder process, and the forecasting framework needed to prevent recurrence.

Related meeting: ^[1]

Old World Popcorn Stockout Risk

Current Status

• Inventory on hand is less than 3 months of supply as of late October 2025.
• The Amazon coupon for Old World popcorn was removed proactively by Gilbert to prevent accelerating the stockout. Coupons had been successfully used to clear slower-moving SKUs (e.g., wheat), but Old World was selling too fast to sustain a discount.
• The inventory report may undercount actual stock — recent inbound shipments to Amazon FBA may not yet be reflected. Gilbert was confirming with Amazon at time of meeting.
• Mark Doudlah noted approximately 7 pallets of white and 5 pallets of yellow popcorn in the warehouse that could be sent to TS Foods for bagging into Old World SKUs.

Bag Quality Note

A prior issue with zipper blow-outs (cold-seal rather than heat-seal) was noted on U-Line bags. Returns on Old World are currently low, suggesting the issue may be manageable short-term, but improving bag quality remains a priority. Gilbert was tasked with checking return data specifically for Old World.

Urgent Reorder Process

The reorder chain involves multiple parties:

1. Gilbert → provides SKU-level reorder quantities to Karly based on inventory data
2. Karly → emails quantities to Mark Doudlah
3. Mark → places the order with Justin (fulfillment/bagging contact)
4. Expected lead time: 1–2 months from order to fulfilled inventory

"Because I know it will, if we actually do only have four months of inventory for Old World, I mean, even if we place an order with Justin, it would take at least, you know, I would think a month or two to fulfill that." — Karly Oykhman

Action Items (from meeting)

• [ ] Gilbert: Confirm Old World inbound shipment status with Amazon; provide reorder quantities to Karly
• [ ] Karly: Email reorder quantities to Mark so he can place order with Justin
• [ ] Gilbert: Check Old World return/bag issue data and report to Mark

2025 SKU-Level Sales Forecast

Why It's Needed

Mark Doudlah requested a comprehensive sales forecast to determine crop holdbacks — how much of each variety to retain from the 2025 harvest for product sales versus other uses. Without this, the farm risks either over-selling into stockouts or under-planting for demand.

Scope of the Forecast

The forecast must cover every SKU across all sales channels:

The output should include:
- Units per SKU per channel (annual projection)
- Total pounds of product per SKU (to translate sales into crop planning units)

Responsible Party

Mark Hope is the designated person to build this forecast. Karly will reach out to initiate.

"I need Mark Hope to go through all of our electronic sales channels… and tell us holdbacks for the 2025 crop. So in other words, I need a projection for the year of sales of each one of those entities… every SKU… and then if I could get a total pounds of product, that would be really helpful." — Mark Doudlah

• [ ] Karly: Email Mark Hope requesting 2025 SKU-level sales forecast by channel, including total pounds per SKU

Broader Inventory Management Considerations

Coupon Strategy & Inventory Impact

Coupons proved effective at clearing excess inventory on slow-moving SKUs (wheat and others showed months-of-supply dropping sharply after coupon activation). However, coupons should be monitored against inventory levels and removed before stock falls below a safe threshold. Old World's coupon was caught in time, but the near-miss highlights the need for tighter inventory triggers.

Inventory Reporting Gap

The current inventory spreadsheet was originally created by Mark Doudlah and does not automatically incorporate inbound FBA shipments. Gilbert noted this as a gap to address — the report should be updated to include in-transit and received-but-not-yet-counted inventory for accurate months-of-supply calculations.

Channel Interdependency

Inventory is shared across Amazon, B2B, Walmart, and the direct website. A surge in one channel (as seen with Amazon in October) can rapidly deplete stock that was implicitly reserved for others. The 2025 forecast exercise is intended to make these tradeoffs explicit before crop planning decisions are locked in.

Related Articles

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